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Sokol Markovo vs Neftochimic Burgas — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
FT
0 – 1
Neftochimic Burgas
Neftochimic Burgas
8/18/2018Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Round 2Stadion Sokol (Markovo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sokol Markovo31%
×Draw24%
Neftochimic Burgas45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Markovo
1.35
Neftochimic Burgas
1.69

Neftochimic Burgas creates 25% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 35 away

creates per match

Sokol Markovo
1.68
Neftochimic Burgas
1.71

allows per match

Sokol Markovo
1.66
Neftochimic Burgas
1.03

finishing

Sokol Markovo+0.00on par
Neftochimic Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Markovo ↓

Neftochimic Burgas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sokol Markovo or draw
55%
Sokol Markovo or Neftochimic Burgas
76%
Draw or Neftochimic Burgas
69%

Winning margin

Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
13%
Neftochimic Burgas wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
74%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
39%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
15%
Neftochimic Burgas 1+ goals
82%
Neftochimic Burgas 2+ goals
50%
Neftochimic Burgas 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
40%
Neftochimic Burgas (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Markovo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.66 · 100 matches

Neftochimic Burgas away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.03 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Markovo attack 1.68 + Neftochimic Burgas defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.35

Neftochimic Burgas attack 1.71 + Sokol Markovo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sokol Markovo scores more
31%
level
24%
Neftochimic Burgas scores more
45%

Neftochimic Burgas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Neftochimic Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Markovo vs Neftochimic Burgas

Neftochimic Burgas beat Sokol Markovo 1-0 in Third League - Southeast on August 18, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Sokol (Markovo).