Sokol Markovo 0–0 Minyor Radnevo: Result & Stats

Sokol Markovo

FT

0 – 0

Minyor Radnevo

3/1/2020

Third League - Southeast · South-East - 19Stadion Sokol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Sokol Markovo38%

×Draw26%

Minyor Radnevo36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokol MarkovoExpected goals in this matchMinyor Radnevo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.33

Sokol Markovo

1.36

Minyor Radnevo

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 100 home / 27 away

1.68

creates per match

1.00

1.66

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Sokol Markovo

1.68

Minyor Radnevo

1.00

allows per match

Sokol Markovo

1.66

Minyor Radnevo

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokol Markovo+0.00on par

Minyor Radnevo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Markovo ↓

Minyor Radnevo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Sokol Markovo or draw

64%

Sokol Markovo or Minyor Radnevo

74%

Draw or Minyor Radnevo

62%

Winning margin

Sokol Markovo wins by 2+

17%

Minyor Radnevo wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Sokol Markovo 1+ goals

74%

Sokol Markovo 2+ goals

39%

Sokol Markovo 3+ goals

16%

Minyor Radnevo 1+ goals

74%

Minyor Radnevo 2+ goals

38%

Minyor Radnevo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)

51%

Minyor Radnevo (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Markovo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.66 · 100 matches

Minyor Radnevo away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.04 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Markovo attack 1.68 + Minyor Radnevo defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.36

Minyor Radnevo attack 1.00 + Sokol Markovo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sokol Markovo scores more

38%

level

26%

Minyor Radnevo scores more

36%

Sokol Markovo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sokol Markovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff