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Sokol Markovo vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
FT
1 – 4
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
9/16/2023Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 7Stadion Sokol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Sokol Markovo44%
×Draw24%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Markovo
1.67
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.40

Sokol Markovo creates 19% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 92 away

creates per match

Sokol Markovo
1.68
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.14

allows per match

Sokol Markovo
1.66
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
1.66

finishing

Sokol Markovo+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Markovo ↓

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sokol Markovo or draw
68%
Sokol Markovo or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
76%
Draw or Lokomotiv Plovdiv II
56%

Winning margin

Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
23%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
81%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
50%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
23%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 1+ goals
75%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 2+ goals
41%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
58%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Markovo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.66 · 100 matches

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.66 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Markovo attack 1.68 + Lokomotiv Plovdiv II defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.67

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II attack 1.14 + Sokol Markovo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sokol Markovo scores more
44%
level
24%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv II scores more
32%

Sokol Markovo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sokol Markovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Markovo vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv II

Lokomotiv Plovdiv II beat Sokol Markovo 4-1 in Third League - Southeast on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sokol in Markovo.