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Sokol Markovo vs Levski Krumovgrad — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sokol Markovo
Sokol Markovo
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 0
Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
4/2/2022Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 24Stadion Sokol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sokol Markovo18%
×Draw20%
Levski Krumovgrad62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Markovo
1.04
Levski Krumovgrad
2.13

Levski Krumovgrad creates 105% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sokol Markovo
1.68
Levski Krumovgrad
2.59

allows per match

Sokol Markovo
1.66
Levski Krumovgrad
0.41

finishing

Sokol Markovo+0.00on par
Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Markovo ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sokol Markovo or draw
38%
Sokol Markovo or Levski Krumovgrad
80%
Draw or Levski Krumovgrad
82%

Winning margin

Sokol Markovo wins by 2+
6%
Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Sokol Markovo 1+ goals
65%
Sokol Markovo 2+ goals
28%
Sokol Markovo 3+ goals
9%
Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
88%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
63%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Sokol Markovo (draw refunded)
22%
Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Markovo at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.66 · 100 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 2.59, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Markovo attack 1.68 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 1.04

Levski Krumovgrad attack 2.59 + Sokol Markovo defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sokol Markovo scores more
18%
level
20%
Levski Krumovgrad scores more
62%

Levski Krumovgrad at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Sokol Markovo 0–5 Levski Krumovgrad

Levski Krumovgrad beat Sokol Markovo 5-0 in Third League - Southeast on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Sokol in Markovo.