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Sokol Lom vs Spartak Soběslav — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Lom
Sokol Lom
FT
3 – 1
Spartak Soběslav
Spartak Soběslav
9/19/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 8Stadion Svépomoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sokol Lom56%
×Draw21%
Spartak Soběslav23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Lom
2.17
Spartak Soběslav
1.33

Sokol Lom creates 63% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 86 away

creates per match

Sokol Lom
2.65
Spartak Soběslav
1.73

allows per match

Sokol Lom
0.94
Spartak Soběslav
1.69

finishing

Sokol Lom+0.00on par
Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Lom ↓

Spartak Soběslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Sokol Lom or draw
77%
Sokol Lom or Spartak Soběslav
79%
Draw or Spartak Soběslav
44%

Winning margin

Sokol Lom wins by 2+
34%
Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sokol Lom 1+ goals
89%
Sokol Lom 2+ goals
64%
Sokol Lom 3+ goals
36%
Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals
74%
Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals
38%
Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sokol Lom (draw refunded)
71%
Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Lom at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Spartak Soběslav away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Lom attack 2.65 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.17

Spartak Soběslav attack 1.73 + Sokol Lom defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sokol Lom scores more
56%
level
21%
Spartak Soběslav scores more
23%

Sokol Lom at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sokol Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Lom vs Spartak Soběslav

Sokol Lom beat Spartak Soběslav 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Svépomoc in Tábor.