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Sokol Lom vs Přeštice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Lom
Sokol Lom
FT
0 – 0
Přeštice
Přeštice
10/9/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 11Stadion Svépomoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Sokol Lom35%
×Draw21%
Přeštice44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Lom
1.76
Přeštice
1.99

Přeštice creates 13% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 23 away

creates per match

Sokol Lom
2.65
Přeštice
3.04

allows per match

Sokol Lom
0.94
Přeštice
0.87

finishing

Sokol Lom+0.00on par
Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Lom ↓

Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Sokol Lom or draw
56%
Sokol Lom or Přeštice
79%
Draw or Přeštice
65%

Winning margin

Sokol Lom wins by 2+
18%
Přeštice wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sokol Lom 1+ goals
83%
Sokol Lom 2+ goals
52%
Sokol Lom 3+ goals
26%
Přeštice 1+ goals
86%
Přeštice 2+ goals
59%
Přeštice 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Sokol Lom (draw refunded)
44%
Přeštice (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Lom at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Přeštice away — creates 3.04, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Lom attack 2.65 + Přeštice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.76

Přeštice attack 3.04 + Sokol Lom defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sokol Lom scores more
35%
level
21%
Přeštice scores more
44%

Přeštice at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Lom vs Přeštice

Sokol Lom and Přeštice drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Svépomoc in Tábor.