Sokol Lom 2–1 Hvězda Cheb: Result & Stats

Sokol Lom

FT

2 – 1

Hvězda Cheb

9/5/2021

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 6Stadion Svépomoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Sokol Lom72%

×Draw16%

Hvězda Cheb12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokol LomExpected goals in this matchHvězda Cheb

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.72

1.04

Sokol Lom

2.72

Hvězda Cheb

1.04

Sokol Lom creates 162% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

2.65

creates per match

1.14

0.94

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Sokol Lom

2.65

Hvězda Cheb

1.14

allows per match

Sokol Lom

0.94

Hvězda Cheb

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokol Lom+0.00on par

Hvězda Cheb+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Lom ↓

Hvězda Cheb →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Sokol Lom or draw

88%

Sokol Lom or Hvězda Cheb

84%

Draw or Hvězda Cheb

28%

Winning margin

Sokol Lom wins by 2+

51%

Hvězda Cheb wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Sokol Lom 1+ goals

93%

Sokol Lom 2+ goals

75%

Sokol Lom 3+ goals

50%

Hvězda Cheb 1+ goals

65%

Hvězda Cheb 2+ goals

28%

Hvězda Cheb 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sokol Lom (draw refunded)

86%

Hvězda Cheb (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Lom at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Hvězda Cheb away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Lom attack 2.65 + Hvězda Cheb defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.72

Hvězda Cheb attack 1.14 + Sokol Lom defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Sokol Lom scores more

72%

level

16%

Hvězda Cheb scores more

12%

Sokol Lom at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Sokol Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff