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Sokol Lom vs Hořovicko — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Lom
Sokol Lom
FT
3 – 0
Hořovicko
Hořovicko
9/13/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 4Stadion Svépomoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sokol Lom64%
×Draw19%
Hořovicko17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Lom
2.29
Hořovicko
1.10

Sokol Lom creates 108% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 86 away

creates per match

Sokol Lom
2.65
Hořovicko
1.27

allows per match

Sokol Lom
0.94
Hořovicko
1.93

finishing

Sokol Lom+0.00on par
Hořovicko+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Lom ↓

Hořovicko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sokol Lom or draw
83%
Sokol Lom or Hořovicko
81%
Draw or Hořovicko
36%

Winning margin

Sokol Lom wins by 2+
41%
Hořovicko wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Sokol Lom 1+ goals
90%
Sokol Lom 2+ goals
66%
Sokol Lom 3+ goals
40%
Hořovicko 1+ goals
67%
Hořovicko 2+ goals
30%
Hořovicko 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sokol Lom (draw refunded)
79%
Hořovicko (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Lom at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Hořovicko away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.93 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Lom attack 2.65 + Hořovicko defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.29

Hořovicko attack 1.27 + Sokol Lom defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Sokol Lom scores more
64%
level
19%
Hořovicko scores more
17%

Sokol Lom at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Sokol Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Lom vs Hořovicko

Sokol Lom beat Hořovicko 3-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 13, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Svépomoc in Tábor.