Hořovicko 4–1 Sokol Lom: Result & Stats

Hořovicko

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Sokol Lom

3/26/2023

4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 19Hořovice UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Hořovicko31%

×Draw23%

Sokol Lom46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HořovickoExpected goals in this matchSokol Lom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.79

Hořovicko

1.44

Sokol Lom

1.79

Sokol Lom creates 24% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 34 away

1.40

creates per match

2.03

1.55

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Hořovicko

1.40

Sokol Lom

2.03

allows per match

Hořovicko

1.55

Sokol Lom

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hořovicko+0.00on par

Sokol Lom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hořovicko ↓

Sokol Lom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Hořovicko or draw

54%

Hořovicko or Sokol Lom

77%

Draw or Sokol Lom

69%

Winning margin

Hořovicko wins by 2+

14%

Sokol Lom wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Hořovicko 1+ goals

76%

Hořovicko 2+ goals

42%

Hořovicko 3+ goals

18%

Sokol Lom 1+ goals

83%

Sokol Lom 2+ goals

53%

Sokol Lom 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Hořovicko (draw refunded)

40%

Sokol Lom (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hořovicko at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.55 · 85 matches

Sokol Lom away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hořovicko attack 1.40 + Sokol Lom defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sokol Lom attack 2.03 + Hořovicko defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hořovicko scores more

31%

level

23%

Sokol Lom scores more

46%

Sokol Lom at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Sokol Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff