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Sokol Lom vs Doubravka — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Lom
Sokol Lom
CANC
15:00
Doubravka
Doubravka
5/1/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 22Stadion Svépomoc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sokol Lom62%
×Draw20%
Doubravka18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Lom
2.20
Doubravka
1.10

Sokol Lom creates 100% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 84 away

creates per match

Sokol Lom
2.65
Doubravka
1.27

allows per match

Sokol Lom
0.94
Doubravka
1.75

finishing

Sokol Lom+0.00on par
Doubravka+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Lom ↓

Doubravka →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sokol Lom or draw
82%
Sokol Lom or Doubravka
80%
Draw or Doubravka
38%

Winning margin

Sokol Lom wins by 2+
39%
Doubravka wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sokol Lom 1+ goals
89%
Sokol Lom 2+ goals
64%
Sokol Lom 3+ goals
37%
Doubravka 1+ goals
67%
Doubravka 2+ goals
30%
Doubravka 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Sokol Lom (draw refunded)
77%
Doubravka (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Lom at home — creates 2.65, concedes 0.94 · 34 matches

Doubravka away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.75 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Lom attack 2.65 + Doubravka defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.20

Doubravka attack 1.27 + Sokol Lom defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sokol Lom scores more
62%
level
20%
Doubravka scores more
18%

Sokol Lom at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sokol Lom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sokol Lom face Doubravka (4. liga - Divizie A)

4. liga - Divizie A returns with Sokol Lom hosting Doubravka. Match starts May 1, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sokol Lom host Doubravka at Stadion Svépomoc.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.