Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sokol Libiš vs Vysoké Mýto — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
PST
15:00
Vysoké Mýto
Vysoké Mýto
5/17/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 26Fotbalový stadion (Libiš)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sokol Libiš37%
×Draw22%
Vysoké Mýto40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Libiš
1.72
Vysoké Mýto
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 72 away

creates per match

Sokol Libiš
2.12
Vysoké Mýto
2.10

allows per match

Sokol Libiš
1.50
Vysoké Mýto
1.32

finishing

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par
Vysoké Mýto+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Libiš ↓

Vysoké Mýto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sokol Libiš or draw
60%
Sokol Libiš or Vysoké Mýto
78%
Draw or Vysoké Mýto
63%

Winning margin

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
19%
Vysoké Mýto wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
82%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
51%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
25%
Vysoké Mýto 1+ goals
83%
Vysoké Mýto 2+ goals
54%
Vysoké Mýto 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
48%
Vysoké Mýto (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Libiš at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

Vysoké Mýto away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.32 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Libiš attack 2.12 + Vysoké Mýto defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.72

Vysoké Mýto attack 2.10 + Sokol Libiš defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sokol Libiš scores more
37%
level
22%
Vysoké Mýto scores more
40%

Vysoké Mýto at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vysoké Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sokol Libiš face Vysoké Mýto (4. liga - Divizie C)

4. liga - Divizie C returns with Sokol Libiš hosting Vysoké Mýto. Match starts May 17, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sokol Libiš host Vysoké Mýto at Fotbalový stadion (Libiš).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.