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Sokol Libiš vs Velké Hamry — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
FT
1 – 4
Velké Hamry
Velké Hamry
9/5/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 3Fotbalový stadion Libiš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sokol Libiš41%
×Draw23%
Velké Hamry36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Libiš
1.77
Velké Hamry
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 53 away

creates per match

Sokol Libiš
2.12
Velké Hamry
1.77

allows per match

Sokol Libiš
1.50
Velké Hamry
1.42

finishing

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par
Velké Hamry+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Libiš ↓

Velké Hamry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sokol Libiš or draw
64%
Sokol Libiš or Velké Hamry
77%
Draw or Velké Hamry
59%

Winning margin

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
22%
Velké Hamry wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
83%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
53%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
26%
Velké Hamry 1+ goals
81%
Velké Hamry 2+ goals
49%
Velké Hamry 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
53%
Velké Hamry (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Libiš at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

Velké Hamry away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Libiš attack 2.12 + Velké Hamry defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.77

Velké Hamry attack 1.77 + Sokol Libiš defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sokol Libiš scores more
41%
level
23%
Velké Hamry scores more
36%

Sokol Libiš at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sokol Libiš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Libiš vs Velké Hamry

Velké Hamry beat Sokol Libiš 4-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on September 5, 2020.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Libiš in Libiš.