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Sokol Libiš vs Štětí — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Štětí
Štětí
9/3/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 5Fotbalový stadion Libiš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sokol Libiš38%
×Draw22%
Štětí40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Libiš
1.73
Štětí
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

creates per match

Sokol Libiš
1.20
Štětí
1.25

allows per match

Sokol Libiš
2.33
Štětí
2.26

finishing

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par
Štětí+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Libiš ↓

Štětí →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sokol Libiš or draw
60%
Sokol Libiš or Štětí
78%
Draw or Štětí
62%

Winning margin

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
19%
Štětí wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
82%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
52%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
25%
Štětí 1+ goals
83%
Štětí 2+ goals
53%
Štětí 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
48%
Štětí (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Libiš at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Štětí away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.26 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Libiš attack 1.20 + Štětí defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.73

Štětí attack 1.25 + Sokol Libiš defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sokol Libiš scores more
38%
level
22%
Štětí scores more
40%

Štětí at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Štětí will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Sokol Libiš 1–2 Štětí

Štětí beat Sokol Libiš 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Libiš in Libiš.