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Sokol Libiš vs Slaný — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Slaný
Slaný
8/31/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 3Fotbalový stadion Libiš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sokol Libiš33%
×Draw22%
Slaný45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Libiš
1.57
Slaný
1.86

Slaný creates 18% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 83 away

creates per match

Sokol Libiš
1.20
Slaný
1.39

allows per match

Sokol Libiš
2.33
Slaný
1.95

finishing

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par
Slaný+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Libiš ↓

Slaný →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sokol Libiš or draw
55%
Sokol Libiš or Slaný
78%
Draw or Slaný
67%

Winning margin

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
16%
Slaný wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
79%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
46%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
21%
Slaný 1+ goals
84%
Slaný 2+ goals
55%
Slaný 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
42%
Slaný (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Libiš at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Slaný away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.95 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Libiš attack 1.20 + Slaný defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.57

Slaný attack 1.39 + Sokol Libiš defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sokol Libiš scores more
33%
level
22%
Slaný scores more
45%

Slaný at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Slaný will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Libiš vs Slaný

Sokol Libiš and Slaný drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on August 31, 2022.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Libiš in Libiš.