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Sokol Libiš vs Náchod — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
CANC
15:00
Náchod
Náchod
5/15/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 24Fotbalový stadion Libiš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sokol Libiš53%
×Draw21%
Náchod26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Libiš
2.05
Náchod
1.38

Sokol Libiš creates 49% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 54 away

creates per match

Sokol Libiš
2.12
Náchod
1.26

allows per match

Sokol Libiš
1.50
Náchod
1.98

finishing

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par
Náchod+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Libiš ↓

Náchod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Sokol Libiš or draw
74%
Sokol Libiš or Náchod
79%
Draw or Náchod
47%

Winning margin

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
31%
Náchod wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
87%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
61%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
33%
Náchod 1+ goals
75%
Náchod 2+ goals
40%
Náchod 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
67%
Náchod (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Libiš at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

Náchod away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.98 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Libiš attack 2.12 + Náchod defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.05

Náchod attack 1.26 + Sokol Libiš defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sokol Libiš scores more
53%
level
21%
Náchod scores more
26%

Sokol Libiš at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sokol Libiš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sokol Libiš face Náchod (4. liga - Divizie C)

4. liga - Divizie C returns with Sokol Libiš hosting Náchod. Match starts May 15, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sokol Libiš host Náchod at Fotbalový stadion Libiš.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.