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Sokol Libiš vs Louny — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Louny
Louny
11/12/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 15Fotbalový stadion Libiš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sokol Libiš36%
×Draw23%
Louny41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Libiš
1.62
Louny
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 70 away

creates per match

Sokol Libiš
1.20
Louny
1.16

allows per match

Sokol Libiš
2.33
Louny
2.04

finishing

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par
Louny+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Libiš ↓

Louny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sokol Libiš or draw
59%
Sokol Libiš or Louny
77%
Draw or Louny
64%

Winning margin

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
18%
Louny wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
80%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
48%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
22%
Louny 1+ goals
83%
Louny 2+ goals
52%
Louny 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
47%
Louny (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Libiš at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Louny away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.04 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Libiš attack 1.20 + Louny defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.62

Louny attack 1.16 + Sokol Libiš defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sokol Libiš scores more
36%
level
23%
Louny scores more
41%

Louny at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Louny will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie B: Sokol Libiš 2–2 Louny

Sokol Libiš and Louny drew 2-2 in 4. liga - Divizie B on November 12, 2022.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Libiš in Libiš.