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Sokol Libiš vs Horky nad Jizerou — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
FT
1 – 2
Horky nad Jizerou
Horky nad Jizerou
11/9/20194. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 14Fotbalový stadion (Libiš)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Sokol Libiš62%
×Draw19%
Horky nad Jizerou19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Libiš
2.38
Horky nad Jizerou
1.23

Sokol Libiš creates 93% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 25 away

creates per match

Sokol Libiš
2.12
Horky nad Jizerou
0.96

allows per match

Sokol Libiš
1.50
Horky nad Jizerou
2.64

finishing

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par
Horky nad Jizerou+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Libiš ↓

Horky nad Jizerou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Sokol Libiš or draw
81%
Sokol Libiš or Horky nad Jizerou
81%
Draw or Horky nad Jizerou
38%

Winning margin

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
40%
Horky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
91%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
68%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
42%
Horky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
71%
Horky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
35%
Horky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
77%
Horky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Libiš at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

Horky nad Jizerou away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.64 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Libiš attack 2.12 + Horky nad Jizerou defence 2.64 → ÷2 → 2.38

Horky nad Jizerou attack 0.96 + Sokol Libiš defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Sokol Libiš scores more
62%
level
19%
Horky nad Jizerou scores more
19%

Sokol Libiš at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Sokol Libiš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Sokol Libiš 1–2 Horky nad Jizerou

Horky nad Jizerou beat Sokol Libiš 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie C on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion (Libiš).