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Sokol Libiš vs Čáslav — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Čáslav
Čáslav
3/19/20224. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 17Fotbalový stadion Libiš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Sokol Libiš52%
×Draw21%
Čáslav27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Libiš
2.08
Čáslav
1.46

Sokol Libiš creates 42% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 69 away

creates per match

Sokol Libiš
2.12
Čáslav
1.41

allows per match

Sokol Libiš
1.50
Čáslav
2.04

finishing

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par
Čáslav+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Libiš ↓

Čáslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Sokol Libiš or draw
73%
Sokol Libiš or Čáslav
79%
Draw or Čáslav
48%

Winning margin

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
30%
Čáslav wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
87%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
61%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
34%
Čáslav 1+ goals
77%
Čáslav 2+ goals
43%
Čáslav 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
66%
Čáslav (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Libiš at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.50 · 26 matches

Čáslav away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.04 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Libiš attack 2.12 + Čáslav defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.08

Čáslav attack 1.41 + Sokol Libiš defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sokol Libiš scores more
52%
level
21%
Čáslav scores more
27%

Sokol Libiš at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sokol Libiš will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Sokol Libiš 0–2 Čáslav

Čáslav beat Sokol Libiš 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Libiš in Libiš.