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Sokol Libiš vs Arsenal Česká Lípa — 4. liga - Divizie B 2019

Sokol Libiš
Sokol Libiš
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Arsenal Česká Lípa
Arsenal Česká Lípa
10/28/20224. liga - Divizie B4. liga - Divizie B · Division B - 13Fotbalový stadion Libiš

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Sokol Libiš21%
×Draw20%
Arsenal Česká Lípa59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Libiš
1.25
Arsenal Česká Lípa
2.24

Arsenal Česká Lípa creates 79% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 35 away

creates per match

Sokol Libiš
1.20
Arsenal Česká Lípa
2.14

allows per match

Sokol Libiš
2.33
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.31

finishing

Sokol Libiš+0.00on par
Arsenal Česká Lípa+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Libiš ↓

Arsenal Česká Lípa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Sokol Libiš or draw
41%
Sokol Libiš or Arsenal Česká Lípa
80%
Draw or Arsenal Česká Lípa
79%

Winning margin

Sokol Libiš wins by 2+
8%
Arsenal Česká Lípa wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Sokol Libiš 1+ goals
71%
Sokol Libiš 2+ goals
36%
Sokol Libiš 3+ goals
13%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 1+ goals
89%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 2+ goals
65%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 3+ goals
38%

Draw no bet

Sokol Libiš (draw refunded)
26%
Arsenal Česká Lípa (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Libiš at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Arsenal Česká Lípa away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Libiš attack 1.20 + Arsenal Česká Lípa defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

Arsenal Česká Lípa attack 2.14 + Sokol Libiš defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Sokol Libiš scores more
21%
level
20%
Arsenal Česká Lípa scores more
59%

Arsenal Česká Lípa at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Arsenal Česká Lípa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Libiš vs Arsenal Česká Lípa

Arsenal Česká Lípa beat Sokol Libiš 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie B on October 28, 2022.

The match was played at Fotbalový stadion Libiš in Libiš.