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Sokol Lanžhot vs Líšeň II — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Sokol Lanžhot
Sokol Lanžhot
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Líšeň II
Líšeň II
11/16/20244. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 7Na Šlajsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Sokol Lanžhot47%
×Draw23%
Líšeň II30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Lanžhot
1.83
Líšeň II
1.44

Sokol Lanžhot creates 27% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 45 away

creates per match

Sokol Lanžhot
2.42
Líšeň II
2.02

allows per match

Sokol Lanžhot
0.85
Líšeň II
1.24

finishing

Sokol Lanžhot+0.00on par
Líšeň II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Lanžhot ↓

Líšeň II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sokol Lanžhot or draw
70%
Sokol Lanžhot or Líšeň II
77%
Draw or Líšeň II
53%

Winning margin

Sokol Lanžhot wins by 2+
26%
Líšeň II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sokol Lanžhot 1+ goals
84%
Sokol Lanžhot 2+ goals
54%
Sokol Lanžhot 3+ goals
28%
Líšeň II 1+ goals
76%
Líšeň II 2+ goals
42%
Líšeň II 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sokol Lanžhot (draw refunded)
61%
Líšeň II (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Lanžhot at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.85 · 67 matches

Líšeň II away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Lanžhot attack 2.42 + Líšeň II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.83

Líšeň II attack 2.02 + Sokol Lanžhot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sokol Lanžhot scores more
47%
level
23%
Líšeň II scores more
30%

Sokol Lanžhot at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sokol Lanžhot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Sokol Lanžhot 0–2 Líšeň II

Líšeň II beat Sokol Lanžhot 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Na Šlajsi in Lanžhot.