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Sokol Lanžhot vs Bystřice nad Pernštejnem — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Sokol Lanžhot
Sokol Lanžhot
CANC
15:00
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
6/13/20214. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 24Na Šlajsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sokol Lanžhot70%
×Draw17%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Lanžhot
2.52
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.02

Sokol Lanžhot creates 147% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 37 away

creates per match

Sokol Lanžhot
2.42
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.19

allows per match

Sokol Lanžhot
0.85
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
2.62

finishing

Sokol Lanžhot+0.00on par
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Lanžhot ↓

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Sokol Lanžhot or draw
87%
Sokol Lanžhot or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
83%
Draw or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
30%

Winning margin

Sokol Lanžhot wins by 2+
47%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sokol Lanžhot 1+ goals
92%
Sokol Lanžhot 2+ goals
71%
Sokol Lanžhot 3+ goals
45%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals
64%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals
27%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Sokol Lanžhot (draw refunded)
84%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Lanžhot at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.85 · 67 matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Lanžhot attack 2.42 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.52

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.19 + Sokol Lanžhot defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Sokol Lanžhot scores more
70%
level
17%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more
13%

Sokol Lanžhot at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Sokol Lanžhot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sokol Lanžhot vs Bystřice nad Pernštejnem — Match Preview

Sokol Lanžhot face Bystřice nad Pernštejnem on June 13, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie D fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sokol Lanžhot host Bystřice nad Pernštejnem at Na Šlajsi.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.