Sokol Kazan 2–0 Nizhny Novgorod II: Result & Stats

Sokol Kazan

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Nizhny Novgorod II

10/18/2024

Second League - Group 4 · Group 4 - 26Stadion Lokomotiv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Sokol Kazan63%

×Draw20%

Nizhny Novgorod II16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokol KazanExpected goals in this matchNizhny Novgorod II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

0.96

Sokol Kazan

2.10

Nizhny Novgorod II

0.96

Sokol Kazan creates 119% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 13 away

1.58

creates per match

0.46

1.47

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Sokol Kazan

1.58

Nizhny Novgorod II

0.46

allows per match

Sokol Kazan

1.47

Nizhny Novgorod II

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokol Kazan+0.00on par

Nizhny Novgorod II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Kazan ↓

Nizhny Novgorod II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sokol Kazan or draw

84%

Sokol Kazan or Nizhny Novgorod II

80%

Draw or Nizhny Novgorod II

37%

Winning margin

Sokol Kazan wins by 2+

40%

Nizhny Novgorod II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sokol Kazan 1+ goals

88%

Sokol Kazan 2+ goals

62%

Sokol Kazan 3+ goals

35%

Nizhny Novgorod II 1+ goals

62%

Nizhny Novgorod II 2+ goals

25%

Nizhny Novgorod II 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sokol Kazan (draw refunded)

79%

Nizhny Novgorod II (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Kazan at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

Nizhny Novgorod II away — creates 0.46, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Kazan attack 1.58 + Nizhny Novgorod II defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.10

Nizhny Novgorod II attack 0.46 + Sokol Kazan defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Sokol Kazan scores more

63%

level

20%

Nizhny Novgorod II scores more

16%

Sokol Kazan at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sokol Kazan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff