Sokol Hostouň 1–0 Přeštice: Result & Stats

Sokol Hostouň

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Přeštice

8/28/2022

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 4Stadion Vojtěcha Zeithamla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Sokol Hostouň47%

×Draw24%

Přeštice29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokol HostouňExpected goals in this matchPřeštice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.25

Sokol Hostouň

1.66

Přeštice

1.25

Sokol Hostouň creates 33% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 30 away

1.39

creates per match

1.17

1.32

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Sokol Hostouň

1.39

Přeštice

1.17

allows per match

Sokol Hostouň

1.32

Přeštice

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokol Hostouň+0.00on par

Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Hostouň ↓

Přeštice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sokol Hostouň or draw

71%

Sokol Hostouň or Přeštice

76%

Draw or Přeštice

53%

Winning margin

Sokol Hostouň wins by 2+

25%

Přeštice wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sokol Hostouň 1+ goals

81%

Sokol Hostouň 2+ goals

49%

Sokol Hostouň 3+ goals

23%

Přeštice 1+ goals

71%

Přeštice 2+ goals

36%

Přeštice 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sokol Hostouň (draw refunded)

62%

Přeštice (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Hostouň at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.32 · 84 matches

Přeštice away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Hostouň attack 1.39 + Přeštice defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.66

Přeštice attack 1.17 + Sokol Hostouň defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sokol Hostouň scores more

47%

level

24%

Přeštice scores more

29%

Sokol Hostouň at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sokol Hostouň will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff