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Sokol Čížová vs Spartak Soběslav — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
PST
12:30
Spartak Soběslav
Spartak Soběslav
3/21/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 18Hrište TJ Sokol Cížová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sokol Čížová61%
×Draw18%
Spartak Soběslav21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Čížová
2.76
Spartak Soběslav
1.61

Sokol Čížová creates 71% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 86 away

creates per match

Sokol Čížová
3.83
Spartak Soběslav
1.73

allows per match

Sokol Čížová
1.50
Spartak Soběslav
1.69

finishing

Sokol Čížová+0.00on par
Spartak Soběslav+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Čížová ↓

Spartak Soběslav →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
43%57%

Double chance

Sokol Čížová or draw
79%
Sokol Čížová or Spartak Soběslav
82%
Draw or Spartak Soběslav
39%

Winning margin

Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
41%
Spartak Soběslav wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
94%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
76%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
51%
Spartak Soběslav 1+ goals
80%
Spartak Soběslav 2+ goals
48%
Spartak Soběslav 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
74%
Spartak Soběslav (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Čížová at home — creates 3.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Spartak Soběslav away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Čížová attack 3.83 + Spartak Soběslav defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.76

Spartak Soběslav attack 1.73 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Sokol Čížová scores more
61%
level
18%
Spartak Soběslav scores more
21%

Sokol Čížová at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Sokol Čížová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sokol Čížová face Spartak Soběslav (4. liga - Divizie A)

4. liga - Divizie A returns with Sokol Čížová hosting Spartak Soběslav. Match starts March 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sokol Čížová host Spartak Soběslav at Hrište TJ Sokol Cížová.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.