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Sokol Čížová vs Slavoj Mýto — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
PST
15:00
Slavoj Mýto
Slavoj Mýto
6/7/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 29Hřiště TJ Sokol Čížová (Čížová)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sokol Čížová75%
×Draw14%
Slavoj Mýto11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Čížová
3.09
Slavoj Mýto
1.16

Sokol Čížová creates 166% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 22 away

creates per match

Sokol Čížová
3.83
Slavoj Mýto
0.82

allows per match

Sokol Čížová
1.50
Slavoj Mýto
2.36

finishing

Sokol Čížová+0.00on par
Slavoj Mýto+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Čížová ↓

Slavoj Mýto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Sokol Čížová or draw
89%
Sokol Čížová or Slavoj Mýto
86%
Draw or Slavoj Mýto
25%

Winning margin

Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
55%
Slavoj Mýto wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
95%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
81%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
58%
Slavoj Mýto 1+ goals
69%
Slavoj Mýto 2+ goals
32%
Slavoj Mýto 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
87%
Slavoj Mýto (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Čížová at home — creates 3.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Slavoj Mýto away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.36 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Čížová attack 3.83 + Slavoj Mýto defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 3.09

Slavoj Mýto attack 0.82 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Sokol Čížová scores more
75%
level
14%
Slavoj Mýto scores more
11%

Sokol Čížová at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Sokol Čížová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sokol Čížová vs Slavoj Mýto — Match Preview

Sokol Čížová face Slavoj Mýto on June 7, 2020 in this 4. liga - Divizie A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Sokol Čížová host Slavoj Mýto at Hřiště TJ Sokol Čížová (Čížová).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.