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Slavoj Mýto vs Sokol Čížová — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Slavoj Mýto
Slavoj Mýto
FT
2 – 1
Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
11/10/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 14Slavoj Mýto - tráva (Mýto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Slavoj Mýto58%
×Draw22%
Sokol Čížová20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Slavoj Mýto
1.91
Sokol Čížová
1.02

Slavoj Mýto creates 87% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 7 away

creates per match

Slavoj Mýto
2.11
Sokol Čížová
0.71

allows per match

Slavoj Mýto
1.33
Sokol Čížová
1.71

finishing

Slavoj Mýto+0.00on par
Sokol Čížová+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Slavoj Mýto ↓

Sokol Čížová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Slavoj Mýto or draw
80%
Slavoj Mýto or Sokol Čížová
78%
Draw or Sokol Čížová
42%

Winning margin

Slavoj Mýto wins by 2+
34%
Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Slavoj Mýto 1+ goals
85%
Slavoj Mýto 2+ goals
57%
Slavoj Mýto 3+ goals
30%
Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
64%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
27%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Slavoj Mýto (draw refunded)
74%
Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Slavoj Mýto at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Sokol Čížová away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Slavoj Mýto attack 2.11 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.91

Sokol Čížová attack 0.71 + Slavoj Mýto defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Slavoj Mýto scores more
58%
level
22%
Sokol Čížová scores more
20%

Slavoj Mýto at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Slavoj Mýto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Slavoj Mýto 2 – 1 Sokol Čížová

Slavoj Mýto beat Sokol Čížová 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Slavoj Mýto - tráva (Mýto).