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Sokol Čížová vs Přeštice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
Pens
0 – 0
Přeštice
Přeštice
10/19/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 11Hřiště TJ Sokol Čížová (Čížová)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sokol Čížová42%
×Draw20%
Přeštice39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Čížová
2.35
Přeštice
2.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 23 away

creates per match

Sokol Čížová
3.83
Přeštice
3.04

allows per match

Sokol Čížová
1.50
Přeštice
0.87

finishing

Sokol Čížová+0.00on par
Přeštice+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Čížová ↓

Přeštice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Sokol Čížová or draw
61%
Sokol Čížová or Přeštice
80%
Draw or Přeštice
58%

Winning margin

Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
24%
Přeštice wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
90%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
68%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
41%
Přeštice 1+ goals
90%
Přeštice 2+ goals
66%
Přeštice 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
52%
Přeštice (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Čížová at home — creates 3.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Přeštice away — creates 3.04, concedes 0.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Čížová attack 3.83 + Přeštice defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 2.35

Přeštice attack 3.04 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sokol Čížová scores more
42%
level
20%
Přeštice scores more
39%

Sokol Čížová at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sokol Čížová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Čížová vs Přeštice

Sokol Čížová and Přeštice drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Hřiště TJ Sokol Čížová (Čížová).