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Sokol Čížová vs Petřín Plzeň — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
PST
14:30
Petřín Plzeň
Petřín Plzeň
4/5/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 20Hřiště TJ Sokol Čížová (Čížová)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sokol Čížová58%
×Draw18%
Petřín Plzeň24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Čížová
2.75
Petřín Plzeň
1.77

Sokol Čížová creates 55% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 55 away

creates per match

Sokol Čížová
3.83
Petřín Plzeň
2.05

allows per match

Sokol Čížová
1.50
Petřín Plzeň
1.67

finishing

Sokol Čížová+0.00on par
Petřín Plzeň+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Čížová ↓

Petřín Plzeň →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Sokol Čížová or draw
76%
Sokol Čížová or Petřín Plzeň
82%
Draw or Petřín Plzeň
42%

Winning margin

Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
38%
Petřín Plzeň wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
93%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
75%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
51%
Petřín Plzeň 1+ goals
83%
Petřín Plzeň 2+ goals
53%
Petřín Plzeň 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
70%
Petřín Plzeň (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Čížová at home — creates 3.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Petřín Plzeň away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.67 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Čížová attack 3.83 + Petřín Plzeň defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.75

Petřín Plzeň attack 2.05 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Sokol Čížová scores more
58%
level
18%
Petřín Plzeň scores more
24%

Sokol Čížová at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Sokol Čížová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sokol Čížová host Petřín Plzeň

April 5, 2020: Sokol Čížová take on Petřín Plzeň in 4. liga - Divizie A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sokol Čížová host Petřín Plzeň at Hřiště TJ Sokol Čížová (Čížová).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.