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Petřín Plzeň vs Sokol Čížová — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Petřín Plzeň
Petřín Plzeň
Pens
1 – 1
Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
9/7/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 5Stadion TJ Dynamo ZČE Plzeň (Plzeň)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Petřín Plzeň63%
×Draw20%
Sokol Čížová17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Petřín Plzeň
2.09
Sokol Čížová
0.98

Petřín Plzeň creates 113% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 7 away

creates per match

Petřín Plzeň
2.47
Sokol Čížová
0.71

allows per match

Petřín Plzeň
1.25
Sokol Čížová
1.71

finishing

Petřín Plzeň+0.00on par
Sokol Čížová+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petřín Plzeň ↓

Sokol Čížová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Petřín Plzeň or draw
83%
Petřín Plzeň or Sokol Čížová
80%
Draw or Sokol Čížová
37%

Winning margin

Petřín Plzeň wins by 2+
39%
Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Petřín Plzeň 1+ goals
88%
Petřín Plzeň 2+ goals
62%
Petřín Plzeň 3+ goals
34%
Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
62%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
26%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Petřín Plzeň (draw refunded)
79%
Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petřín Plzeň at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.25 · 55 matches

Sokol Čížová away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petřín Plzeň attack 2.47 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.09

Sokol Čížová attack 0.71 + Petřín Plzeň defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Petřín Plzeň scores more
63%
level
20%
Sokol Čížová scores more
17%

Petřín Plzeň at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Petřín Plzeň will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Petřín Plzeň 1–1 Sokol Čížová

Petřín Plzeň and Sokol Čížová drew 1-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 7, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion TJ Dynamo ZČE Plzeň (Plzeň).