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Sokol Čížová vs Mariánské Lázně — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
FT
3 – 1
Mariánské Lázně
Mariánské Lázně
11/16/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 15Hřiště TJ Sokol Čížová (Čížová)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sokol Čížová67%
×Draw16%
Mariánské Lázně17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Čížová
3.04
Mariánské Lázně
1.50

Sokol Čížová creates 103% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 55 away

creates per match

Sokol Čížová
3.83
Mariánské Lázně
1.49

allows per match

Sokol Čížová
1.50
Mariánské Lázně
2.24

finishing

Sokol Čížová+0.00on par
Mariánské Lázně+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Čížová ↓

Mariánské Lázně →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Sokol Čížová or draw
83%
Sokol Čížová or Mariánské Lázně
84%
Draw or Mariánské Lázně
33%

Winning margin

Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
48%
Mariánské Lázně wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
95%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
80%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
57%
Mariánské Lázně 1+ goals
78%
Mariánské Lázně 2+ goals
44%
Mariánské Lázně 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
80%
Mariánské Lázně (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Čížová at home — creates 3.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Mariánské Lázně away — creates 1.49, concedes 2.24 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Čížová attack 3.83 + Mariánské Lázně defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 3.04

Mariánské Lázně attack 1.49 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Sokol Čížová scores more
67%
level
16%
Mariánské Lázně scores more
17%

Sokol Čížová at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Sokol Čížová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Sokol Čížová 3–1 Mariánské Lázně

Sokol Čížová beat Mariánské Lázně 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on November 16, 2019.

The match was played at Hřiště TJ Sokol Čížová (Čížová).