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Sokol Čížová vs Jindřichův Hradec — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
PST
15:00
Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
5/3/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 24Hřiště TJ Sokol Čížová (Čížová)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sokol Čížová73%
×Draw14%
Jindřichův Hradec13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Čížová
3.17
Jindřichův Hradec
1.32

Sokol Čížová creates 140% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 56 away

creates per match

Sokol Čížová
3.83
Jindřichův Hradec
1.14

allows per match

Sokol Čížová
1.50
Jindřichův Hradec
2.50

finishing

Sokol Čížová+0.00on par
Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Čížová ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–15%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Sokol Čížová or draw
87%
Sokol Čížová or Jindřichův Hradec
86%
Draw or Jindřichův Hradec
27%

Winning margin

Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
53%
Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
96%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
82%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
60%
Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
73%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
38%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
85%
Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Čížová at home — creates 3.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.50 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Čížová attack 3.83 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 3.17

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.14 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Sokol Čížová scores more
73%
level
14%
Jindřichův Hradec scores more
13%

Sokol Čížová at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Sokol Čížová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sokol Čížová host Jindřichův Hradec

May 3, 2020: Sokol Čížová take on Jindřichův Hradec in 4. liga - Divizie A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sokol Čížová host Jindřichův Hradec at Hřiště TJ Sokol Čížová (Čížová).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.