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Jindřichův Hradec vs Sokol Čížová — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Jindřichův Hradec
Jindřichův Hradec
FT
0 – 2
Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
10/5/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 9Hřiště Vajgar (Jindřichův Hradec)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Jindřichův Hradec41%
×Draw24%
Sokol Čížová35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jindřichův Hradec
1.58
Sokol Čížová
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 7 away

creates per match

Jindřichův Hradec
1.45
Sokol Čížová
0.71

allows per match

Jindřichův Hradec
2.21
Sokol Čížová
1.71

finishing

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par
Sokol Čížová+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jindřichův Hradec ↓

Sokol Čížová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Jindřichův Hradec or draw
65%
Jindřichův Hradec or Sokol Čížová
76%
Draw or Sokol Čížová
59%

Winning margin

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+
20%
Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals
79%
Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals
47%
Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals
21%
Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
77%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
43%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)
53%
Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jindřichův Hradec at home — creates 1.45, concedes 2.21 · 53 matches

Sokol Čížová away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.45 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.58

Sokol Čížová attack 0.71 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Jindřichův Hradec scores more
41%
level
24%
Sokol Čížová scores more
35%

Jindřichův Hradec at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jindřichův Hradec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jindřichův Hradec 0 – 2 Sokol Čížová

Sokol Čížová beat Jindřichův Hradec 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Hřiště Vajgar (Jindřichův Hradec).