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Sokol Čížová vs Hvězda Cheb — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
FT
2 – 1
Hvězda Cheb
Hvězda Cheb
9/14/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 6Hřiště TJ Sokol Čížová (Čížová)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sokol Čížová74%
×Draw14%
Hvězda Cheb12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Čížová
3.31
Hvězda Cheb
1.32

Sokol Čížová creates 151% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 28 away

creates per match

Sokol Čížová
3.83
Hvězda Cheb
1.14

allows per match

Sokol Čížová
1.50
Hvězda Cheb
2.79

finishing

Sokol Čížová+0.00on par
Hvězda Cheb+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Čížová ↓

Hvězda Cheb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Sokol Čížová or draw
88%
Sokol Čížová or Hvězda Cheb
86%
Draw or Hvězda Cheb
26%

Winning margin

Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
56%
Hvězda Cheb wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
96%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
83%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
62%
Hvězda Cheb 1+ goals
73%
Hvězda Cheb 2+ goals
38%
Hvězda Cheb 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
86%
Hvězda Cheb (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Čížová at home — creates 3.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Hvězda Cheb away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.79 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Čížová attack 3.83 + Hvězda Cheb defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 3.31

Hvězda Cheb attack 1.14 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Sokol Čížová scores more
74%
level
14%
Hvězda Cheb scores more
12%

Sokol Čížová at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Sokol Čížová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sokol Čížová 2 – 1 Hvězda Cheb

Sokol Čížová beat Hvězda Cheb 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Hřiště TJ Sokol Čížová (Čížová).