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Sokol Čížová vs Český lev - Union Beroun — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
FT
7 – 1
Český lev - Union Beroun
Český lev - Union Beroun
8/17/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 2Hřiště TJ Sokol Čížová (Čížová)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sokol Čížová79%
×Draw12%
Český lev - Union Beroun9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Čížová
3.42
Český lev - Union Beroun
1.13

Sokol Čížová creates 203% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 25 away

creates per match

Sokol Čížová
3.83
Český lev - Union Beroun
0.76

allows per match

Sokol Čížová
1.50
Český lev - Union Beroun
3.00

finishing

Sokol Čížová+0.00on par
Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Čížová ↓

Český lev - Union Beroun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–17%
4–24%
4–32%
4–40%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Sokol Čížová or draw
91%
Sokol Čížová or Český lev - Union Beroun
88%
Draw or Český lev - Union Beroun
21%

Winning margin

Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
61%
Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
97%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
85%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
64%
Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals
68%
Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals
31%
Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
90%
Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Čížová at home — creates 3.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Český lev - Union Beroun away — creates 0.76, concedes 3.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Čížová attack 3.83 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 3.42

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 0.76 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Sokol Čížová scores more
79%
level
12%
Český lev - Union Beroun scores more
9%

Sokol Čížová at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Sokol Čížová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Čížová vs Český lev - Union Beroun

Sokol Čížová beat Český lev - Union Beroun 7-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Hřiště TJ Sokol Čížová (Čížová).