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Sokol Čížová vs České Budějovice II — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
PST
15:00
České Budějovice II
České Budějovice II
5/10/20204. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 25Hřiště TJ Sokol Čížová (Čížová)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Sokol Čížová53%
×Draw19%
České Budějovice II28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Čížová
2.57
České Budějovice II
1.84

Sokol Čížová creates 40% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 26 away

creates per match

Sokol Čížová
3.83
České Budějovice II
2.19

allows per match

Sokol Čížová
1.50
České Budějovice II
1.31

finishing

Sokol Čížová+0.00on par
České Budějovice II+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Čížová ↓

České Budějovice II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Sokol Čížová or draw
72%
Sokol Čížová or České Budějovice II
81%
Draw or České Budějovice II
47%

Winning margin

Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
34%
České Budějovice II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
92%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
72%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
47%
České Budějovice II 1+ goals
84%
České Budějovice II 2+ goals
55%
České Budějovice II 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
66%
České Budějovice II (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Čížová at home — creates 3.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

České Budějovice II away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Čížová attack 3.83 + České Budějovice II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 2.57

České Budějovice II attack 2.19 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sokol Čížová scores more
53%
level
19%
České Budějovice II scores more
28%

Sokol Čížová at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sokol Čížová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sokol Čížová face České Budějovice II (4. liga - Divizie A)

4. liga - Divizie A returns with Sokol Čížová hosting České Budějovice II. Match starts May 10, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Sokol Čížová host České Budějovice II at Hřiště TJ Sokol Čížová (Čížová).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.