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České Budějovice II vs Sokol Čížová — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

České Budějovice II
České Budějovice II
FT
1 – 0
Sokol Čížová
Sokol Čížová
10/12/20194. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Round 10SCM Složiště (České Budějovice)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

České Budějovice II75%
×Draw16%
Sokol Čížová9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

České Budějovice II
2.50
Sokol Čížová
0.74

České Budějovice II creates 238% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 7 away

creates per match

České Budějovice II
3.30
Sokol Čížová
0.71

allows per match

České Budějovice II
0.78
Sokol Čížová
1.71

finishing

České Budějovice II+0.00on par
Sokol Čížová+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

České Budějovice II ↓

Sokol Čížová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

České Budějovice II or draw
91%
České Budějovice II or Sokol Čížová
84%
Draw or Sokol Čížová
25%

Winning margin

České Budějovice II wins by 2+
53%
Sokol Čížová wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

České Budějovice II 1+ goals
92%
České Budějovice II 2+ goals
71%
České Budějovice II 3+ goals
45%
Sokol Čížová 1+ goals
52%
Sokol Čížová 2+ goals
17%
Sokol Čížová 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

České Budějovice II (draw refunded)
89%
Sokol Čížová (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

České Budějovice II at home — creates 3.30, concedes 0.78 · 23 matches

Sokol Čížová away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

České Budějovice II attack 3.30 + Sokol Čížová defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 2.50

Sokol Čížová attack 0.71 + České Budějovice II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

České Budějovice II scores more
75%
level
16%
Sokol Čížová scores more
9%

České Budějovice II at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "České Budějovice II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

České Budějovice II 1 – 0 Sokol Čížová

České Budějovice II beat Sokol Čížová 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie A on October 12, 2019.

The match was played at SCM Složiště (České Budějovice).