Sokol Brozany 2–4 Teplice II: Result & Stats

Sokol Brozany

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Teplice II

3/16/2025

3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 19Stadion Sokol Brozany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Sokol Brozany50%

×Draw23%

Teplice II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokol BrozanyExpected goals in this matchTeplice II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.26

Sokol Brozany

1.79

Teplice II

1.26

Sokol Brozany creates 42% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 80 away

1.57

creates per match

1.27

1.25

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Sokol Brozany

1.57

Teplice II

1.27

allows per match

Sokol Brozany

1.25

Teplice II

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokol Brozany+0.00on par

Teplice II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Brozany ↓

Teplice II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Sokol Brozany or draw

73%

Sokol Brozany or Teplice II

77%

Draw or Teplice II

50%

Winning margin

Sokol Brozany wins by 2+

27%

Teplice II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sokol Brozany 1+ goals

83%

Sokol Brozany 2+ goals

53%

Sokol Brozany 3+ goals

26%

Teplice II 1+ goals

72%

Teplice II 2+ goals

36%

Teplice II 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sokol Brozany (draw refunded)

65%

Teplice II (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Brozany at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.25 · 81 matches

Teplice II away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Brozany attack 1.57 + Teplice II defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.79

Teplice II attack 1.27 + Sokol Brozany defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Sokol Brozany scores more

50%

level

23%

Teplice II scores more

27%

Sokol Brozany at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Sokol Brozany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff