Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sokol Brozany vs Arsenal Česká Lípa — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Sokol Brozany
Sokol Brozany
FT
6 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Arsenal Česká Lípa
Arsenal Česká Lípa
11/3/20243. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 13Stadion Sokol Brozany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Sokol Brozany44%
×Draw24%
Arsenal Česká Lípa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokol Brozany
1.67
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.40

Sokol Brozany creates 19% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 47 away

creates per match

Sokol Brozany
1.57
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.55

allows per match

Sokol Brozany
1.25
Arsenal Česká Lípa
1.77

finishing

Sokol Brozany+0.00on par
Arsenal Česká Lípa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokol Brozany ↓

Arsenal Česká Lípa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sokol Brozany or draw
68%
Sokol Brozany or Arsenal Česká Lípa
76%
Draw or Arsenal Česká Lípa
56%

Winning margin

Sokol Brozany wins by 2+
23%
Arsenal Česká Lípa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sokol Brozany 1+ goals
81%
Sokol Brozany 2+ goals
50%
Sokol Brozany 3+ goals
23%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 1+ goals
75%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 2+ goals
41%
Arsenal Česká Lípa 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Sokol Brozany (draw refunded)
58%
Arsenal Česká Lípa (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokol Brozany at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.25 · 81 matches

Arsenal Česká Lípa away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.77 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokol Brozany attack 1.57 + Arsenal Česká Lípa defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.67

Arsenal Česká Lípa attack 1.55 + Sokol Brozany defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sokol Brozany scores more
44%
level
24%
Arsenal Česká Lípa scores more
32%

Sokol Brozany at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sokol Brozany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokol Brozany vs Arsenal Česká Lípa

Sokol Brozany beat Arsenal Česká Lípa 6-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Sokol Brozany in Brozany nad Ohří.