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Sokół Sieniawa vs Wólczanka W. Pełkińska — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
FT
3 – 2
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
3/7/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 23Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Sokół Sieniawa44%
×Draw23%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Sieniawa
1.77
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.50

Sokół Sieniawa creates 18% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 37 away

creates per match

Sokół Sieniawa
1.46
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.38

allows per match

Sokół Sieniawa
1.63
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
2.08

finishing

Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Sieniawa ↓

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Sokół Sieniawa or draw
67%
Sokół Sieniawa or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
77%
Draw or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
56%

Winning margin

Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
23%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
83%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
53%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
26%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals
78%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals
44%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
57%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Sieniawa at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.46 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.77

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.38 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sokół Sieniawa scores more
44%
level
23%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more
33%

Sokół Sieniawa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sokół Sieniawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Sokół Sieniawa 3–2 Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

Sokół Sieniawa beat Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej in Stalowa Wola.