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Sokół Sieniawa vs Stal Kraśnik — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
FT
2 – 2
Stal Kraśnik
Stal Kraśnik
5/1/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 33Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sokół Sieniawa39%
×Draw26%
Stal Kraśnik36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Sieniawa
1.41
Stal Kraśnik
1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 36 away

creates per match

Sokół Sieniawa
1.46
Stal Kraśnik
1.08

allows per match

Sokół Sieniawa
1.63
Stal Kraśnik
1.36

finishing

Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par
Stal Kraśnik+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Sieniawa ↓

Stal Kraśnik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Sokół Sieniawa or draw
64%
Sokół Sieniawa or Stal Kraśnik
74%
Draw or Stal Kraśnik
61%

Winning margin

Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
18%
Stal Kraśnik wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
76%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
41%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
17%
Stal Kraśnik 1+ goals
74%
Stal Kraśnik 2+ goals
39%
Stal Kraśnik 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
52%
Stal Kraśnik (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Sieniawa at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Stal Kraśnik away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.46 + Stal Kraśnik defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.41

Stal Kraśnik attack 1.08 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sokół Sieniawa scores more
39%
level
26%
Stal Kraśnik scores more
36%

Sokół Sieniawa at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sokół Sieniawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Sokół Sieniawa 2–2 Stal Kraśnik

Sokół Sieniawa and Stal Kraśnik drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Sieniawa.