Sokół Sieniawa 2–3 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Sokół Sieniawa

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

3/13/2022

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 19Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Sokół Sieniawa33%

×Draw24%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół SieniawaExpected goals in this matchSiarka Tarnobrzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.58

Sokół Sieniawa

1.38

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.58

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 14% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 89 away

1.46

creates per match

1.53

1.63

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Sokół Sieniawa

1.46

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.53

allows per match

Sokół Sieniawa

1.63

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Sieniawa ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Sokół Sieniawa or draw

58%

Sokół Sieniawa or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

76%

Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

67%

Winning margin

Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+

15%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals

75%

Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals

40%

Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals

16%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals

79%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals

47%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)

44%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Sieniawa at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.46 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.38

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.53 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sokół Sieniawa scores more

33%

level

24%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more

42%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff