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Sokół Sieniawa vs Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 3
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
10/23/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Sokół Sieniawa43%
×Draw24%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Sieniawa
1.67
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.46

Sokół Sieniawa creates 14% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 70 away

creates per match

Sokół Sieniawa
1.46
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.30

allows per match

Sokół Sieniawa
1.63
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
1.89

finishing

Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Sieniawa ↓

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sokół Sieniawa or draw
66%
Sokół Sieniawa or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
76%
Draw or Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski
57%

Winning margin

Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
22%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
81%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
50%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
23%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 1+ goals
77%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 2+ goals
43%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
56%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Sieniawa at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.46 + Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.67

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski attack 1.30 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sokół Sieniawa scores more
43%
level
24%
Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski scores more
34%

Sokół Sieniawa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sokół Sieniawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokół Sieniawa vs Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski

Orlęta Radzyń Podlaski beat Sokół Sieniawa 3-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Sieniawa.