Sokół Sieniawa 3–0 Hetman Zamosc: Result & Stats

Sokół Sieniawa

FT

3 – 0

Hetman Zamosc

8/23/2020

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 5Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Sokół Sieniawa71%

×Draw15%

Hetman Zamosc14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sokół SieniawaExpected goals in this matchHetman Zamosc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

1.21

Sokół Sieniawa

2.88

Hetman Zamosc

1.21

Sokół Sieniawa creates 138% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 20 away

1.46

creates per match

0.80

1.63

allows per match

4.30

creates per match

Sokół Sieniawa

1.46

Hetman Zamosc

0.80

allows per match

Sokół Sieniawa

1.63

Hetman Zamosc

4.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par

Hetman Zamosc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Sieniawa ↓

Hetman Zamosc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Sokół Sieniawa or draw

86%

Sokół Sieniawa or Hetman Zamosc

85%

Draw or Hetman Zamosc

29%

Winning margin

Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+

51%

Hetman Zamosc wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals

94%

Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals

78%

Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals

54%

Hetman Zamosc 1+ goals

70%

Hetman Zamosc 2+ goals

34%

Hetman Zamosc 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)

84%

Hetman Zamosc (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Sieniawa at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Hetman Zamosc away — creates 0.80, concedes 4.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.46 + Hetman Zamosc defence 4.30 → ÷2 → 2.88

Hetman Zamosc attack 0.80 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Sokół Sieniawa scores more

71%

level

15%

Hetman Zamosc scores more

14%

Sokół Sieniawa at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Sokół Sieniawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff