Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sokół Sieniawa vs Garbarnia Kraków — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
5/3/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 28Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sokół Sieniawa43%
×Draw23%
Garbarnia Kraków33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Sieniawa
1.70
Garbarnia Kraków
1.46

Sokół Sieniawa creates 16% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sokół Sieniawa
1.46
Garbarnia Kraków
1.29

allows per match

Sokół Sieniawa
1.63
Garbarnia Kraków
1.94

finishing

Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Sieniawa ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sokół Sieniawa or draw
67%
Sokół Sieniawa or Garbarnia Kraków
77%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
57%

Winning margin

Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
23%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
82%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
51%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
24%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
77%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
43%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
57%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Sieniawa at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.46 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.70

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.29 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sokół Sieniawa scores more
43%
level
23%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
33%

Sokół Sieniawa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sokół Sieniawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokół Sieniawa vs Garbarnia Kraków

Sokół Sieniawa beat Garbarnia Kraków 3-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Sieniawa.