Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Sokół Sieniawa vs Czarni Połaniec — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Sokół Sieniawa
Sokół Sieniawa
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Czarni Połaniec
Czarni Połaniec
3/9/2024III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 20Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Sokół Sieniawa44%
×Draw23%
Czarni Połaniec33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Sieniawa
1.74
Czarni Połaniec
1.48

Sokół Sieniawa creates 18% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 85 away

creates per match

Sokół Sieniawa
1.46
Czarni Połaniec
1.34

allows per match

Sokół Sieniawa
1.63
Czarni Połaniec
2.02

finishing

Sokół Sieniawa+0.00on par
Czarni Połaniec+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Sieniawa ↓

Czarni Połaniec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Sokół Sieniawa or draw
67%
Sokół Sieniawa or Czarni Połaniec
77%
Draw or Czarni Połaniec
56%

Winning margin

Sokół Sieniawa wins by 2+
23%
Czarni Połaniec wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sokół Sieniawa 1+ goals
82%
Sokół Sieniawa 2+ goals
52%
Sokół Sieniawa 3+ goals
25%
Czarni Połaniec 1+ goals
77%
Czarni Połaniec 2+ goals
43%
Czarni Połaniec 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sokół Sieniawa (draw refunded)
57%
Czarni Połaniec (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Sieniawa at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.63 · 70 matches

Czarni Połaniec away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.02 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Sieniawa attack 1.46 + Czarni Połaniec defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.74

Czarni Połaniec attack 1.34 + Sokół Sieniawa defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sokół Sieniawa scores more
44%
level
23%
Czarni Połaniec scores more
33%

Sokół Sieniawa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sokół Sieniawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokół Sieniawa vs Czarni Połaniec

Sokół Sieniawa beat Czarni Połaniec 2-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Sieniawa.