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Sokół Ostróda vs Wisła Puławy — II Liga - East 2019

Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Wisła Puławy
Wisła Puławy
9/11/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 8Stadion Sokoła Ostróda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sokół Ostróda37%
×Draw24%
Wisła Puławy40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Ostróda
1.54
Wisła Puławy
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 70 away

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.24
Wisła Puławy
1.49

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.74
Wisła Puławy
1.83

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par
Wisła Puławy+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

Wisła Puławy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw
60%
Sokół Ostróda or Wisła Puławy
76%
Draw or Wisła Puławy
63%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
18%
Wisła Puławy wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
79%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
45%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
20%
Wisła Puławy 1+ goals
80%
Wisła Puławy 2+ goals
48%
Wisła Puławy 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
48%
Wisła Puławy (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

Wisła Puławy away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.83 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.24 + Wisła Puławy defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

Wisła Puławy attack 1.49 + Sokół Ostróda defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more
37%
level
24%
Wisła Puławy scores more
40%

Wisła Puławy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wisła Puławy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Sokół Ostróda 0–4 Wisła Puławy

Wisła Puławy beat Sokół Ostróda 4-0 in II Liga - East on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sokoła Ostróda in Ostróda.