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Sokół Ostróda vs Warta Sieradz — III Liga - Group 1 2020

Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 4
Warta Sieradz
Warta Sieradz
4/1/2023III Liga - Group 1III Liga - Group 1 · Group 1 - 22Stadion Sokoła Ostróda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sokół Ostróda34%
×Draw23%
Warta Sieradz43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Ostróda
1.58
Warta Sieradz
1.81

Warta Sieradz creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.76
Warta Sieradz
1.28

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda
2.35
Warta Sieradz
1.41

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par
Warta Sieradz+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

Warta Sieradz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw
57%
Sokół Ostróda or Warta Sieradz
77%
Draw or Warta Sieradz
66%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
16%
Warta Sieradz wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
79%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
47%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
21%
Warta Sieradz 1+ goals
84%
Warta Sieradz 2+ goals
54%
Warta Sieradz 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
44%
Warta Sieradz (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.76, concedes 2.35 · 17 matches

Warta Sieradz away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.76 + Warta Sieradz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.58

Warta Sieradz attack 1.28 + Sokół Ostróda defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more
34%
level
23%
Warta Sieradz scores more
43%

Warta Sieradz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Warta Sieradz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokół Ostróda vs Warta Sieradz

Warta Sieradz beat Sokół Ostróda 4-0 in III Liga - Group 1 on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sokoła Ostróda in Ostróda.