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Sokół Ostróda vs Stargard Szczeciński — II Liga - East 2019

Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Stargard Szczeciński
Stargard Szczeciński
10/3/2020II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 7Stadion Sokoła Ostróda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sokół Ostróda38%
×Draw24%
Stargard Szczeciński38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Ostróda
1.52
Stargard Szczeciński
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 36 away

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.24
Stargard Szczeciński
1.31

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.74
Stargard Szczeciński
1.81

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par
Stargard Szczeciński+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

Stargard Szczeciński →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw
62%
Sokół Ostróda or Stargard Szczeciński
76%
Draw or Stargard Szczeciński
62%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
18%
Stargard Szczeciński wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
78%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
45%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
20%
Stargard Szczeciński 1+ goals
78%
Stargard Szczeciński 2+ goals
45%
Stargard Szczeciński 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
50%
Stargard Szczeciński (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

Stargard Szczeciński away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.81 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.24 + Stargard Szczeciński defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.52

Stargard Szczeciński attack 1.31 + Sokół Ostróda defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more
38%
level
24%
Stargard Szczeciński scores more
38%

Sokół Ostróda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sokół Ostróda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Sokół Ostróda 0–2 Stargard Szczeciński

Stargard Szczeciński beat Sokół Ostróda 2-0 in II Liga - East on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Sokoła Ostróda in Ostróda.