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Sokół Ostróda vs Ruch Chorzów — II Liga - East 2019

Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Ruch Chorzów
Ruch Chorzów
9/25/2021II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 10Stadion Sokoła Ostróda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Sokół Ostróda27%
×Draw26%
Ruch Chorzów47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Ostróda
1.06
Ruch Chorzów
1.49

Ruch Chorzów creates 41% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.24
Ruch Chorzów
1.24

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.74
Ruch Chorzów
0.88

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par
Ruch Chorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

Ruch Chorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw
53%
Sokół Ostróda or Ruch Chorzów
74%
Draw or Ruch Chorzów
73%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
10%
Ruch Chorzów wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
65%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
29%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
9%
Ruch Chorzów 1+ goals
77%
Ruch Chorzów 2+ goals
44%
Ruch Chorzów 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
36%
Ruch Chorzów (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

Ruch Chorzów away — creates 1.24, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.24 + Ruch Chorzów defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Ruch Chorzów attack 1.24 + Sokół Ostróda defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more
27%
level
26%
Ruch Chorzów scores more
47%

Ruch Chorzów at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ruch Chorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sokół Ostróda vs Ruch Chorzów

Ruch Chorzów beat Sokół Ostróda 3-1 in II Liga - East on September 25, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sokoła Ostróda in Ostróda.