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Sokół Ostróda vs Radunia Stężyca — II Liga - East 2019

Sokół Ostróda
Sokół Ostróda
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
3/19/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 24Stadion Sokoła Ostróda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Sokół Ostróda38%
×Draw24%
Radunia Stężyca37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sokół Ostróda
1.52
Radunia Stężyca
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 61 away

creates per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.24
Radunia Stężyca
1.25

allows per match

Sokół Ostróda
1.74
Radunia Stężyca
1.79

finishing

Sokół Ostróda+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sokół Ostróda ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sokół Ostróda or draw
63%
Sokół Ostróda or Radunia Stężyca
76%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
62%

Winning margin

Sokół Ostróda wins by 2+
18%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Sokół Ostróda 1+ goals
78%
Sokół Ostróda 2+ goals
45%
Sokół Ostróda 3+ goals
20%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
78%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
44%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Sokół Ostróda (draw refunded)
51%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sokół Ostróda at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.79 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sokół Ostróda attack 1.24 + Radunia Stężyca defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.52

Radunia Stężyca attack 1.25 + Sokół Ostróda defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sokół Ostróda scores more
38%
level
24%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
37%

Sokół Ostróda at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sokół Ostróda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Sokół Ostróda 2–3 Radunia Stężyca

Radunia Stężyca beat Sokół Ostróda 3-2 in II Liga - East on March 19, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Sokoła Ostróda in Ostróda.